[indeed-social-media sm_list=’fb,tw,li,goo,xg’ sm_template=’ism_template_3′ sm_list_align=’horizontal’ sm_display_counts=’false’ sm_display_full_name=’true’ sm_disable_mobile=1 ]
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
We are relatively short of time as the intraday volatility is likely to picky up as thin market conditions are noted across the board. Updates regarding the trade will be posted at the bottom of this page. If you wish to be notified when an update is released please subscribe to DDMarkets. As we have notified our subscribers, our main focus in on the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the Forex market. Relating to our prior trading strategy in Gold and US indices, we would not be surprised if the Aussie will benefit from safe-haven demand, a new concept we have noticed in the FX markets.
AUDUSD Monthly Chart
Please click on the chart to enlarge:
AUDUSD monthly chart shows the heavy selling began when the top Head-And-Shoulders (H&S) was confirmed. As we have previously mentioned the technical entry was missed by us and we refrained from joining the forthcoming downtrend. Once a technical entry is missed it is not wise to chase the market and force your way in amongst the bears. AUDUSD reached the monthly support at 0.8080, which we would expect to hold on the first test. The broader technical image of Aussie-Dollar is a wider top H&S where 0.8080 serves as a neckline. We are not concerned by the broader H&S and forecast a temporary rally in AUDUSD. The protective stop loss order is placed below the following support level at 0.7964. Our target for the long trade would be the monthly high, 0.8540.
We would expect to be in a fair profit within the next 24 hours. We certainly hope the illiquid conditions will serve our long position in the pair.
AUDSD 60 Minutes Chart
Please click on the chart to enlarge:
In the hourly chart the triangle can be easily noted. As we our trading strategy is based on the monthly chart, on many occasions the price may trade against us before reversing higher as we have seen in our latest trade in crude oil. There is no entry in the hourly chart, however, if the market price is able to break above the upper resistance line, further intraday gains are likely to be seen. If AUDUSD breaks below the support, the weakness may continue to the monthly support line at 0.8080. We have highlighted the firm resistance (in purple) that is supplied by the 100 Moving Average (MA).
We are capitalizing over the recent USD demand in the market by initiating a long trade in AUDUSD at market price, protective stop layered at 0.7948, targeting 0.8540. Please note as this is a monthly entry a relatively large stop is used while maintaining a Risk-Ratio (RR) of 1 : 2.
The fundamental trigger may be the Greece Presidential elections that are due on Tuesday and possibly the total amount of the covered bonds that were purchased by the European Central Bank (ECB) that will be published today at 14:30 GMT. We must highlight the market liquidity is becoming thinner as we approach the holidays. It is often reflected in the market as irregular volatility in the currency pairs.
Please note that due to recent market movements please check AUDUSD in the hourly chart traded near the lower end of the triangle before correcting higher.
29/12/14 UPDATE: AUDUSD is trading at 0.8148 at the time of this writing after trading as low as 0.8087 as safe-haven flows begin to appear in the Forex market as we near the final vote the Greek elections at 10:00am GMT.
30/12/14 UPDATE: Moderate gains are taking place in AUDUSD at the time of this writing, currently trading at 0.8162. The trade is in a minor profit but we were also able to capitalize over the positive swap rates in the pair. Our latest trade in the FTSE100 is also a modest profit at the time of this writing.
30/12/14 UPDATE: AUDUSD is trading at 0.8192 at the time of this writing, We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price.
11/01/14 UPDATE: AUDUSD finished the week at 0.8200, ensuring the trade is a decent profit at the time of this writing. We may issue a trade update at the opening of the markets in order to liquidate further profits from the long trade.
12/01/14 UPDATE: AUDUSD is trading at 0.8215 at the time of this writing. We are closing 15% of the long trade at market price.
15/01/14 UPDATE: AUDUSD is trading at 0.8269 at the time of this writing, We are closing 25% of long trade at market price and finally shift the protective stop to the entry. We have enjoyed and continue to enjoy from positive interest at the rollovers.
22/01/15 UPDATE: AUDUSD triggered the protective stop order that was shifted to the entry. We were able to liquate a decent profit over the long trade and enjoyed positive swap rates at the rollover since the trade was initiated on 22 December, 2015.
Trade alerts are also issued in the weekly update.