End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

Crude Oil and Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey created severe weather conditions that halted some of the oil refineries in the region. We have discussed the possibility the US will tap oil emergency stocks, which may in turn push oil lower. We have refrained from initiating any trades in crude oil as no entry was present until today.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (OCT17)

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End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

Crude oil Daily Chart 31/08/17

Today’s gains may the second lower low. There can still be further gains towards 48.05 before the third leg lower materializes. There is no guarantee further gains may take place but they must be anticipated. We cannot layer an entry order in the market, the potential drawdown will have to be absorbed in an event of 48.05 is re-tested.

The gains that took place in today’s session were as a result of Libya’s oil production outages. We suspect the weakness may stem from the US tapping the emergency reserves, from a technical angle the weakness may take place on Friday or at the very beginning of next week.

EURNZD Daily Chart

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End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

EURNZD Daily Chart 31/08/17

We noted the technical entry on Wednesday but decided not to layer a sell limit order. We decided to wait for today’s session in order to note the potential re-test of Wednesday’s high. The gains in today’s session provided a short entry in EURNZD.

We are concerned the elections’ polls in New Zealand will impact the technical end of the market as we have witnessed in the French elections several months ago. There may also be a monthly entry in NZDUSD at the daily close, which may affirm the case for EURNZD.

There may also be an long entry in NZDCHF, which again cements the above. The main difference between NZDCHF and EURNZD is the size of the stop. We have updated earlier we are likely to refrain from NZD but there are many technical indications that suggest moderate gains in the currency.

We opted for NZDJPY as we were uncertain another leg lower would take place in today’s session. It offered the tightest stop with minimal market exposure. Re-entering NZD is a tough decision as we must also determine which cross we wish to enter. We would rather avoid NZDUSD.

EURGBP Daily Chart

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End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

EURGBP Daily Chart 31/08/17

We were hoping for stronger gains in EURGBP which may have provided us with a short entry. The gains however were limited as opposed to EURNZD we discussed earlier. Should the UK economic data that is scheduled for Friday disappoint we it may provide us with an entry with a reasonable stop although we must bear in mind the spread may widen due to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

We will consider whether we wish to layer a sell limit order after the daily close.

Crude Oil Trade Alert

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End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

Crude oil Daily Chart 31/08/17

Crude oil (nymex, OCT17) short at market price (47.05)
Take profit: 43.90
Protective stop: 48.42
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 2.2 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 7 days (approx.)

Note: We may incur a kick to 48.05, it is the potential drawdown we will have to absorb if materializes. Please note that crude oil is extremely volatile.

Crude oil breached the resistance level and invalidated the established downtrend. We are not re-entering the market.


AS ALL THE SIGNALS IN THIS PAGE ARE CLOSED THE STRATEGIES ARE NOW ACCESSIBLE TO ALL TRADERS



End of Month Technical Entries August 2017

End of Month Technical Entries August 2017