EURUSD and Gold Intraday Strategies: Re-establishing the Trend

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Gold Intraday Strategy

Gold suffered from heavy losses in the past several weeks. We believe the fundamental trigger for the losses was the market pricing-in the possibility of an in-bailout where gold reserves will be liquidated by the Greek central bank. Recent remarks but Alexis Tsipras in today’s session did not add the ‘bullish momentum of the Euro but we have noted a moderate recovery in Gold in recent sessions. This could easily have been a trade alerts but we decided to opt for a breakout strategy.

XAU/USD (Gold) 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

Gold 4hr Chart 30/07/15

Gold 4hr Chart 30/07/15

We have noted the potential for reversed Head-And-Shoulders (H&S) on the 4hr chart. The neckline (blue line) is the key to this intraday strategy. Although we could have opted for a reversal off the right hand-shoulder in our trade alerts we decide to opt for a more conservative approach and wait for a firm breakout above the neckline.

Upon a successful breakout we estimate the target of the reversal pattern to be  at 1,128.90.

Gold Trading Strategy Update, 4 August 2015

Gold failed in closing above the neckline and affirming a successful breakout. Recent intraday suggests the reversed H&S has been negated, painting a new technical pattern on the 4hr chart.

XAU/USD 4hr Chart, 4 August 2015

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Gold 4hr Chart 04/08/15

Gold 4hr Chart 04/08/15

By the book this is a breakout strategy. A break below the  support line may expose 1,075.00 while a break above the upper resistance line may indicate further gains are expected towards 1,109.50.

The recent selling in gold was triggered by hedge funds and speculators but does not reflect physical gold buying, which is relatively firm. Deep-buying strategies may be exercised as the price is re-testing the lower support line. The conservative approach would be a breakout strategy.

EURUSD Intraday Strategy

Upon breaking below the moving averages (MA’s) support levels Euro Dollar extended its losses in the Forex market. After studying EURUSD on multiple time frames we noted the price has reached strong support levels on the 4hr chart.

EURUSD 4hr Chart

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EURUSD 4hr Chart 30 July 2015

EURUSD 4hr Chart 30 July 2015

A 4hr close above the support is required to affirm a technical entry in the Euro Dollar. The corrective gains we are anticipating are unlikely to yield a reversal towards to 1.1113 but simply target the next intraday resistance at 1.1000.  We would like to remind you End of Month flows are likely to be seen in EURSD on 31 July, which may support our bullish view for the currency pair. Recent remarks from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will refuse to the Greek resolution without a concrete debt deal and that no debt relief will be seen until reforms take place added to further selling in EURUSD as price successfully re-tested the support line. The intraday strategy will kick into play on the 4hr close as we stated earlier.

The key support is seen at 1.0898. A firm break below may invalidate our technical projections but would not provide a short entry as the technical indicators are likely reach oversold territories in such a scenario.

31/07/15 UPDATE: EURUSD has exceeded our objective target for the corrective gains we have anticipated, targeting the upper resistance line (in blue):

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURUSD 4hr Chart 31/07/15

EURUSD 4hr Chart 31/07/15

Gold breakout strategy remains valid as long as the price does not post a 4hr close below 1,079.50.

10/08/15 UPDATE: It did take some time but Gold finally broke outside the triangle and acquired our bullish target we provided in this strategy.

Gold 4hr Chart

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Gold 4hr Chart 10 August 2015

Gold 4hr Chart 10 August 2015

When EURUSD and Gold strategies were published they were only available to traders that have signed up for our spot intraday strategies plan.



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EURUSD and Gold Intraday Strategies: Re-establishing the Trend
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EURUSD and Gold Intraday Strategies: Re-establishing the Trend

Last Updated on August 11, 2015