GBPNZD Trading Strategy: Best Trade in 2015?

GBPNZD Technical Analysis

GBPNZD has been the centre of our attention this week. We have discovered a technical entry in the FX cross but refrained from entering as we suspected a price region holds a concentrated amount of stop loss orders may attract the attention of key market traders. For GBPNZD trading strategy we are using the daily chart combined with the 4hr chart.

GBPNZD Daily Chart

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

GBPNZD Trading Strategy

The daily chart marks the potential for a mutated bullish flag. If you pay close attention you will see the price has broken below the flag, which appears to negate the moderate gains for GBPNZD. However, if we combine the 4hr chart it is viewed as a false breakout where the price is soon expected to post a healthy correction to the losses.

While the heavy stops were not triggered, the weak stops were targeted by the market, which is why we find current price levels to be attractive for establishing our long entry in the pair. We are aware of current global events and Alexis Tsipras resignation on Thursday, which we have widely expected in June 2015.

If our entry is well-timed we should be in a decent profit before the end of the trading session. With that said, this trade may take time to develop if the retracement will not materialize today. We are highlighting the high costs of holding a long trade in GBPNZD as it means paying interest at the rollover. The protective stop loss is not as tight as we would like, however, as this is a cross it is the best stop we were able to derive from the chart.

GBPNZD Trade Alert Details

GBPNZD long at market price: 2.3446
Protective stop: 2.3154
Take profit: 2.5330
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 6 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 60 days

23/08/15 UPDATE: GBPNZD breached 2.3527, trading at 2.3617 at the time of this writing.

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart 23/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart 23/08/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price.

23/08/15 UPDATE II: We noticed heavy buying in JPY and strong selling in NZD, AUD and CAD. These are not regular movements, we  are attempting to find out what has triggered this reaction.

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart II 24/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart II 24/08/15

GBPNZD is trading at  2.3634 at the time of this writing. We are closing 10% of the trade and shifting the stop to the entry.

23/08/15 UPDATE III: We admit that we are uncertain what is behind the heavy selling in the commodity currencies but we have successfully predicted GBPNZD recovery. We have liquidated enough profits and decide to play on the 4hr chart until we understand what is triggering the mass NZD selling.  Protective stop is shifted to 2.3472. The price is now testing the prior support that was breached, now acting as resistance.

24/08/15 UPDATE: GBPNZD is trading at 2.3789 at the time of this writing.

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart Progress 24/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart Progress 24/08/15

We are closing 10% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to 2.3580.

24/08/15 UPDATE II: please note we are very close to the market  in our GBPNZD trade and the possibility of the price hitting the stop is very high. These actions were taken to ensure  our safety as the currency correlations show signs of instability.

If this deviation is not temporary (currently we are viewing it as a single event) many  automated strategies will be affected by this change and are likely to post heavy losses. We have encountered such deviations in the past so we will have no difficulties adjusting.

24/08/15 UPDATE: We have decided to close GBPNZD trade at market price (if the take profit was not triggered for you).  This was an extraordinary day in the Forex market as GBPNZD bid price in certain brokers was over 2.5300. GBPNZD is trading at  1.4177 at the time of this writing.

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GBPNZD 4hr Chart Profit 24/08/15

GBPNZD 4hr Chart Profit 24/08/15

We have finished the trade with a decent profit (over +700 pips) in less than 24 hours. We want to highlight that such profits over short time frames are rare and we are glad we were able to capitalize over the market. As you know, EURUSD has triggered our take profit in today’s session.

GBPNZD Trading Strategy: Best Trade in 2015?
As all trades are closed this page can now be accessed by all traders. Open trades and relevant intraday strategies are restricted to members only. We have been providing trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.
GBPNZD Trading Strategy: Best Trade in 2015?

Last Updated on July 3, 2017