Intraday Market Analysis: Covering EURUSD and USDZAR

[indeed-social-media sm_list=’fb,tw,li,email’ sm_template=’ism_template_6′ sm_list_align=’horizontal’ sm_display_counts=’false’ sm_display_full_name=’true’ sm_disable_mobile=1 ]

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Following the bullish break outside the pennant we have highlighted in the market intraday market analysis EURUSD was able to sustain its gains in the market but corrective weakness was soon to follow and the support level (prior resistance) and successfully tested.

 EURUSD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURUSD 4hr chart, 20/06/15

EURUSD 4hr chart, 20/06/15

The current risk is the emergence of a downtrend where lower highs and lower lows are painted. A firm break below the support line may confirm a downtrend has been established. A break above 1.1399 may indicate the opposite and could in fact suggest a fresh uptrend has been established. At current levels there is no indication where we are heading from here. Minor resistance is noted at 1.1353. It is early the to determine the impact of Greece reporting it will offer an improved proposal to its creditors over the weekend.

We have highlighted that there is a grace period of 30 days before a default is declared should Greece miss its payments to the IMF in June. The IMF has warned Greece that it will revoke the 30 days period, which would negate any Greek plans to buy more time. Unlike the prior financial crisis Europe is well-prepared should Greece exit the euro zone.  We mentioned on multiple occasions this is a political game run by the Greek government to show they are ‘fighting’ with Europe to the bitter end before giving in. However, Putin’s recent intervention in Greece sheds more darkness on what is due to come.

USDZAR Techincal Analysis

USDZAR was able to sustain its uptrend sine 2011, which we are certain was noticed by many forex traders. In our intraday market analysis we are focusing on the 4hr chart as corrective weakness was noted in recent sessions.

USDZAR 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDZAR 4hr chart, 20/06/15

USDZAR 4hr chart, 20/06/15

USDZAR has been correcting its gains since 8 June, 2015. It appears we are in an establishes downtrend as lower highs and lower lows  are made. The potential for a double bottom reversal pattern is quite misleading. While the 200MA (in orange) may provide a temporary support, the objective of the downtrend is around the 61.8% Fibo (12.0820). A break below the 200MA is required to pave the way for further selling in USDZAR.

A technical retracement towards 12.2925 is possible if the 200MA holds. However, as the price is already within an established downtrend, a successful re-test of 12.2925 (resistance) and a failure to firmly break above may lead  technical traders to exercise sell-on-dips strategies, targeting the 61.8% as a significant selling pressure is expected. Only a firm break above 12.2925 will invalidate the established downtrend.

Intraday Market Analysis Outcome

EURUSD 4hr Chart 23 June 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURISD 4hr chart outcome, 23/06/15

EURISD 4hr chart outcome, 23/06/15

USDZAR 4hr Chart 23 June 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDZAR 4hr chart outcome, 23/06/15

USDZAR 4hr chart outcome, 23/06/15

As EURUSD and USDZAR intraday analysis is no longer relevant it can  now be accessed by all traders. Intraday market analysis is restricted to members that have signed up for our intrday market analysis plan when it is published on the website. We have been proving trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.

MEMBERSHIP PLANS MARKET EDUCATION MORE RESEARCH