Intraday Market Analysis: Determining Crude Oil Trend

Crude Oil Intraday Strategy


May 2017 UPDATE: This is our latest crude oil strategy

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-opec members are due to meet on 17 April, 2016 in Doha. Speculations OPEC members will freeze crude oil production back to January 2016 levels were watered down by Saudi Arabia as the country stated they will not freeze crude oil production without other OPEC members joining in such as Iran. The speculations gained momentum once again, which is the reason behind crude oil recent gains.

Crude oil 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

Crude oil 4hr Chart 10/04/16

Crude oil 4hr Chart 10/04/16

The immediate intraday outlook for crude oil (nymex) suggests the commodity is due for corrective weakness. 39.95 is seen as the key resistance in the 4hr chart. It is difficult to assess whether crude oil will gap higher or lower but if the resistance holds corrective weakness is expected to target the initial support (in blue), which if fails to contain the anticipated weakness the selling may resume towards 38.35.

However, we are uncertain we are in front of heavy selling in crude oil. Dip-buying strategies may be exercised upon successful re-tests of the support levels that are displayed in the 4hr chart. Optimal market conditions would be a successful re-test of 38.35. This may mark the second bullish wave, which would then lead to the third bullish wave. The price is then expected to break above the resistance (39.35), targeting 40.50. Upon a re-test of 38.35 we suggest paying attention to the 20 Moving Average (MA), which is the middle line inside the Bollinger bands that is displayed in crude oil chart.

If crude oil gaps above 39.35 only a 4hr close above 39.35 will negate our intraday analysis for the commodity.

11/04/16 UPDATE: We are pleased with the progress of our intraday strategy for crude oil.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

Crude Oil 4hr Chart 11/04/16

Crude Oil 4hr Chart 11/04/16

Please note the initial support (in blue) has been tested by the market at the time of this writing.

13/04/16 UPDATE: Reports that Saudi Arabia has reached an agreement with Russia on Wednesday triggered moderate gains in crude oil. The initial support level that was displayed on the chart was able to contain the weakness, acquiring our 40.50 target for crude oil.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

Crude oil 4hr Chart 13/04/16

Crude oil 4hr Chart 13/04/16

As crude oil acquired is technical objective  this page can now be accessed by all traders. We have been providing trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.

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