Intraday Market Analysis: EURUSD and GBPAUD Outlook

EURUSD Intraday Outlook

Although we may see some volatility in EURUSD as Mario Draghi testimony begins the currency pair is locked inside a range. The bias still remains to the upside but no firm entry is available at an intraday level. Although the next resistance and support is approximately +100 pips in either direction it is currently more attractive for scalping rather than day trading.

GBPAUD Intraday Trading Strategy

Theresa May’s speech on Friday disappointed the market as no clear plan was presented. Aside the divorce bill and access to the single market boarders between Northern Ireland and Ireland are still debated as well as EU citizens rights that are currently living in the UK.

GBPAUD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPAUD 4hr Chart 25/09/17

Although it may appear a short signal is available we are expecting GBP to strengthen against a basket of currencies. GBPAUD is trading at its resistance (1.7000), a firm 4hr close above is required in order to suggest further gains are in store.

The cross may retrace lower should it fail to break above 1.7000, however, our preference is to wait for a re-test of 1.6890 as corrective gains may emerge that could force the price above 1.7000. The initial target of a break above 1.7000 is 1.7120.

Upon a 4hr close above 1.7000 the price may attempt to re-test 1.7000 as often seen in breakouts. It is difficult to determine when the entry will be provided, our assumption is that it may be within the next 48 – 72 hours. There are no short entries available in GBPAUD.

We will cautiously add that despite our general expectation for a firm GBP there is a fair possibility the potential gains in GBPAUD may stem from a weak AUD.

We waited until we near the end of the Asian session to add more intraday strategies but at the time of this writing GBPAUD appears to have the most attractive technical structure.

28/09/17 UPDATE: GBPAUD acquired its target in today’s session as UK brexit minister affirmed Theresa May’s prior brexit speech contributed to the progress of the negotiations.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPAUD 4hr Chart 28/09/17