Intraday Market Analysis: EURUSD and the FOMC Statement

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EURUSD intraday Strategy

EURUSD suffered from corrective weakness in recent sessions after painting a third bullish wave as evident from the 4hr chart. Recent weakness may attract EURUSD bulls into the market as long as 1.1013 holds, which is supported by the 21 Moving Average (MA) in orange.

EURUSD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURUSD Intraday Strategy 28 July 2015

EURUSD 4hr chart 28/07/15

Should the corrective gains materialize we are uncertain if Euro Dollar will have the strength to break above 1.1126 and concrete its foothold against the US Dollar. In a scenario of a firm breakout above 1.1126 we would expect EURUSD to extend its gains in the Forex market.

It is essential to note the FOMC statement is due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The Fed monetary policy decision is likely to receive a greater attention from traders as the current market expectations are for a rate hike in September, 2015. The Fed may choose to place on hold any rate hikes and wait for clarity with Greece and Europe. Negotiations are currently taking place between Greece and its creditors where the new deadline is now 20 August, 2015. Should the Fed water down the market’s rate hike expectations the US Dollar may be heavily sold against a basket of currencies in the Forex market.

Going back to the current status of EURUSD, a more conservative approach may be to anticipate a break above 1.1062, which may affirm further gains based on shorter time frames. We must highlight that the market has not re-tested 1.1013 at the time of this writing. Should the price tempt to break below 1.1013 a firm support is noted by the 100MA (in blue).

For general reference large amount of stops appears to be placed above 1.1150 by short traders at the time of this writing.