Intraday Market Analysis: Predicting Dollar Yen and AUDNZD

[indeed-social-media sm_list=’fb,tw,li,goo,xg’ sm_template=’ism_template_3′ sm_list_align=’horizontal’ sm_display_counts=’false’ sm_display_full_name=’true’ sm_disable_mobile=1 ]

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY recent breakout may suggest further weakness is due, We outline the key price levels on the 4hr chart and discuss the possible scenarios.

USDJPY 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDJPY 4hr Chart 16/08/15

USDJPY 4hr Chart 16/08/15

USDJPY Intraday Strategy

Dollar yen broke outside the triangle (pennant), suggesting further selling is due. There are 3 key scenarios that are likely to allow traders to join the anticipated downtrend. The first immediate scenario is a re-test of the nearest resistance (diagonal brown line). A re-test means the price must reach or be within a near proximity to the resistance at the 4hr close. We will clarify that it is possible to enter before the 4hr close but the analysis must be made in real time in lower time frames such as the hourly or 30min charts. If the resistance line holds price is then expected to retrace lower towards 123.74.

The second scenario is when the 123.74 is breached. The move is likely to kick algorithms into play that may accelerate the selling, in line with the bearish breakout we discussed earlier. The target for a break below 123.74 is seen at 123.10.

The third scenario is where USDJPY breaks above the nearest resistance and heads for towards the upper resistance (former support line in the triangle). While the break above the resistance (in brown) may lead to further gains there is little technical support for a long trade. Only upon a successful re-test of the upper resistance (black line) a short entry will be provided. The initial target would be a re-test of the former support line (in brown) that is now acting as a support level as it has been violated.

AUDNZD Technical Analysis

AUDNZD reach a firm resistance level on the daily chart. This is a quite complex scenario as there is a small possibility traders may try to flush weak stops before reversing lower.

AUDNZD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

AUDNZD4hr Chart 16/08/15

AUDNZD4hr Chart 16/08/15

AUDNZD Intraday Strategy

The upper resistance (in black) can also be seen on the daily chart. The major concern is the ‘Hammer’ that was painted in recent sessions, which is why we are focusing on a higher price level to provide a cleaner indication of the corrective weakness we are anticipating.

Price must re-test 1.1330, preferably not close to the daily close. Upon a successful re-test AUDNZD is then expected to retrace lower, targeting 1.2264. Unlike our prior intraday strategy for USDJPY in this scenario it may be wise to time your entry with the hourly chart rather than wait for the 4hr close.

A break below 1.1226 may unearth  1.1178, which will then allow a deeper retracement towards 1.1108. The optimal scenario would be a re-test of 1.1330 although we cannot guarantee this price level will be tested by the market.

The Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is due later during the Asian session is likely to be one of the fundamental indicators that will kick our strategy into play. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes that is due to be published in the early hours of Tuesday morning (GMT) will be the key for our AUDNZD intraday analysis.

We would also like to highlight that the EU vote on the approval of the third Greek bailout package is scheduled to take place on 19 August, 2015.  While the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) halted the Yuan devaluation attention will still be paid to the Dollar Yuan fix during the Asian session as the central bank has the ability to surprise and resume its intervention in the FX rates.

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 19 August 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 19/08/15

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 19/08/15

Although AUDNZD upper resistance remained firm, breakout strategies exercised on our trading strategy worked well.

USDJPY 4hr Chart 19 August 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDJPY 4hr Chart 20/08/15

USDJPY 4hr Chart 20/08/15

USDJPY initial resistance line was temporarily violated as the price tested the current support (123.74) at the time of this writing.

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 21 August 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

AUDNZD 4hr Chart 21/08/15

Our technical strategy for AUDNZD has been great success as all our targets were achieved based on breakout strategies.

USDJPY 4hr Chart 21 August 2015

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDJPY 4hr Chart 22/08/15

USDJPY 4hr Chart 22/08/15

USDJPY cracked the support levels that were required for our breakout strategy, acquiring all our targets as described in the intraday strategy.

When AUDNZD and USDJPY intraday strategies were published they were only available to traders that have signed up for our spot intraday strategies plan.



To view current and future intraday strategies sign up to our intraday plan. See details.

Intraday Market Analysis: Predicting Dollar Yen and AUDNZD
More Intraday Strategies

Global Trade Alerts Performance
Intraday Market Analysis: Predicting Dollar Yen and AUDNZD

Last Updated on August 21, 2015