Intraday Strategies: Analysing Euro Swiss and GBPUSD

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GBPUSD Intraday Signal

Numerous currency pairs were held in a tight range in the past week in the Forex market. The negative revision to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to both September and August triggered a heavy US Dollar (USD) selling, which forced many currencies to breakout their tight range such as GBPUSD.

GBPUSD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPUSD 4hr Chart 03/10/15

GBPUSD 4hr Chart 03/10/15

As the price succeeded in breaking outside the bearish channel it encountered moderate resistance by the 55 Moving Average (MA, in blue) that initiated the corrective weakness that took place after the NFP was released. In order to affirm a successful re-test the price must re-test the breached resistance (upper black line) and post a 4hr close above. The natural target would be the 55MA while a firm break above the 55MA may suggest further gains towards 1.5320. If the price closes below the breached resistance it may strengthen the possibility for a false breakout and may invalidate our bullish projection for GBPUSD.

Although this may not be relevant at the time of this writing, the UK is expected to hold a referendum in 2017 whether it wishes to remain part of the EU. According to the early polls, 40% wish to exit the EU while 43% wish to remain. Our early analysis suggests the UK will exit the EU unless drastic events will unfold. When we’ll near 2017 we will release our projection and strategy for GBP and the FTSE100.

EURCHF Intraday/Weekly Strategy

As you may know EURCHF suffered from heavy selling following the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision to lift the 1,2000 floor. As the price hit rock bottom corrective gains took place in the Forex market as we note the potential for a medium-term uptrend. Although we often focus on the 4hr chart it is possible EURCHF may provide a clean entry during the week and therefore provide the intraday strategy ahead of time.

EURCHF Weekly Chart

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EURCHF Weekly Chart 03/1015

EURCHF Weekly Chart 03/1015

Euro Swiss affirmed several sessions ago the weekly resistance that lead to corrective weakness in the currency pair. In order to locatea clean entry the price must re-test the upper resistance that is highly likely to provide a 4hr entry when the re-test takes place. The resistance may also be also be used for shorter time frames such as 30min as long an intraday entry has been provided by the market.

Upon a successful re-test the price is then expected to retrace lower towards 1.0730 where a weekly close below may suggest further losses towards 1.0565. We highlighted 1.0870 as it is possible the chart painted a fresh uptrend, which requires a technical confirmation. If the price orbits around 1.0870 and the price does not break below the price is then expected to break above the upper resistance of the weekly chart.

EURCHF intraday strategy will only become relevant on a successful re-test of the upper resistance or 1.0870. Dip-buying strategies may be exercised as well and can be affirmed via intraday time frames.

07/10/15 UPDATE: GBPUSD acquired our target after breaking above the MA. Although a re-test was seen we are uncertain how many traders were able to capitalize on it as our support level required re-adjustment.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPUSD 4hr Chart 07/10/15

GBPUSD 4hr Chart 07/10/15

EURCHF is nesting on the support we highlighted in the analysis.