Intraday Strategies: Monitoring Dollar Cad and Dollar Swiss

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USDCAD Technical Analysis

(We want to highlight that if USDCAD and USDCHF gaps following the outcome of the Greek elections both intraday strategies may be instantly invalidated).

In one of our global trade alerts (not intraday strategies) we had a choice whether to short USDCAD or opt for a long trade in NZDUSD. We have decided to opt for the Kiwi Dollar as Dollar Cad failed in providing us with a clean, technical entry. However, the technical pattern we have recognized produce the downtrend we have successfully anticipated.

USDCAD 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCAD 4hr Chart 20/09/15

USDCAD 4hr Chart 20/09/15

The moderate gains in USDCAD from a technical angle occurred when the objective of the breakout has been met by the market. USDCAD retraced within a relatively short period of time back towards the breached support level, which is now acting as resistance. What drew our attention were the 100 Moving average (MA, in green) and the 55MA (in purple). Both MA’s appear to have prevented the price from advancing higher in the 4hr chart. From our experience, it is possible for the price to trade above the MA’s to flush the weak stops before reversing lower. We believe 1.3255 should contain any bullish attempts to drive the price higher. A break above 1.3255 may negate our strategy for the pair.

The target for the reversal is fairly conservative as it is early to determine whether we are in front of a moderate reversal. We therefore believe the selling in USDCAD, should they materialize, may be contained at 1.3137 where dip-buying strategies may be exercised upon a successful re-test of 1.3137.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF intraday strategy will be challenging as the Greek elections are likely to force a gap in the currency pair but we hope it will act in the favour of our technical analysis. There are multiple ways of using this strategy.

USDCHF 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF 4hr Chart 20/09/15

USDCHF 4hr Chart 20/09/15

USDCHF weakness began when the top Head-And-Shoulders (H&S) was affirmed on the 4hr chart (highlighted in yellow). Every dip higher provided an entry for sell-on-dips strategies. The current gains, which were sustained by the 500MA (in pink)  appear to be no different than the previous bullish retracements. As long as the upper resistance holds (upper diagonal line, in blue) Dollar Swiss is expected to break below its intraday low (0.9526). If the resistance gives way breakout strategies may not be the best choice as the resistance is not a valid level for breakout strategies.

We have highlighted 0.9575 as it must be observed. If the price stutters around 0.9575 corrective gains may be seen. This level should not be used for breakout strategies.

By observing the broader picture of USDCHF, the recent gains in USDCHF may have painted a right-hand shoulder of a broader top H&S (highlighted in purple). If the broader H&S takes place, the objective of the reversal would be 0.9295. However, we prefer adopting a more conservative approach intraday corrections are more than likely to occur. We therefore set the target for USDCHF at 0.9425.

There are 2 ways of playing on the broader H&S. If the current resistance (upper blue line) holds, the weakness may be anticipated towards 0.9425 while paying great attention to the neckline (lower blue line). The alternative is to wait for a break below the neckline, which may affirm the downtrend in USDCHF.

22/09/15 UPDATE: USDCAD began its retracement lower (highlighted in yellow) but was unable to sustain the weakness before trading above 1.3255.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCAD 4hr Chart 22/09/15

USDCAD 4hr Chart 22/09/15

22/09/15 UPDATE: USDCHF, similar to USDCAD began its retracement lower (highlighted in yellow) but was unable to resume its corrective weakness before breaking above the resistance.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF 4hr Chart 22/09/15

USDCHF 4hr Chart 22/09/15

Intraday Strategies: Monitoring Dollar Cad and Dollar Swiss

As USDCAD and USDCHF strategies are no longer applicable this page can  now be accessed by all traders. Relevant strategies are restricted to members only. We have been providing trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.
Intraday Strategies: Monitoring Dollar Cad and Dollar Swiss

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Intraday Strategies: Monitoring Dollar Cad and Dollar Swiss

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Intraday Strategies: Monitoring Dollar Cad and Dollar Swiss

Last Updated on September 27, 2015