Last Technical Attempt at the Infamous GBPJPY

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GBPJPY Technical Analysis

The Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) that were released in October had a greater impact on the market as the previous figures were revised lower for September and August, trigger a mass USD selling in the Forex market. Our prior attempts to capitalize over the weak Japanese yen (JPY) we are expecting due a QE expansion by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were unfruitful. This may certainly be our last attempt to capitalize of the weak yen we are projecting.

GBPJPY Weekly Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY Weekly Chart 02/10/15

GBPJPY Weekly Chart 02/10/15

We have noted the weekly support that was able sustain the price since February 2014. The current dip is viewed as a re-test of the weekly support, which may suggest corrective gains are due. As by the end of the day it is the weekly close we can consider entering the trade at current levels.

GBPJPY 4hr Chart

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GBPJPY 4hr Chart 02/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 02/10/15

By using GBPJPY 4hr chart we are expecting 180.96 to hold rather than witnessing a deeper correction towards the lower support level (in black). Although we are using technical analysis to affirm the entry this trade heavily relies on the BOJ to take action.

180.30 is they level that we will layer our protective stop order beneath. As we are not entering a the best price for a long trade limited drawdown may be seen as the price mat re-test 180.96.

GBPJPY Trade Alert Details

GBPJPY long at market price (181.31)
Take profit: 186.90
Protective stop: 179.90
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 4 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 14 days

Note: If the market does not price in the probability of a QE by the BOJ within 14 days it may not happen at all until the end of the month.

NZDJPY Trade Alert Details

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NZDJPY 4hr Chart 02/10/15

NZDJPY 4hr Chart 02/10/15

We have decided to increase our net short exposure to the Japanese yen. We are using the 4hr chart for our entry while placing the stop beneath the current low.

NZDJPY long at market price (76.81)
Protective stop: 75.98
Take profit: 79.19
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 3 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 21 days

02/10/15 UPDATE:  GBPJPY is trading at  182.08 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart II 02/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart II 02/10/15

We are closing 10% of the long trade at market price.

02/10/15 UPDATE II: GBPJPY is trading at 182.38 at the time of this writing. The price is at the intraday resistance and we have gained almost +100 pips distance from our entry.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart III 02/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart III 02/10/15

We are closing 10% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to the entry.

02/10/15 UPDATE III: NZDJPY is trading at 77.31 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

NZDJPY 4hr Chart II 02/10/15

NZDJPY 4hr Chart II 02/10/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the stop to the entry as this was an intraday entry that was not supported via longer time frames.

05/10/15 UPDATE: GBJPY is trading at 182.61 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 05/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 05/10/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to  181.70.

05/10/15 UPDATE II: NZDJPY is trading at 77.92 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

NZDJPY 4hr Chart 05/10/15

NZDJPY 4hr Chart 05/10/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to 76.85.

05/10/15 UPDATE III: The weak data for GBP is forcing GBPJPY lower at the time of this writing. We hope the yen selling will contain the weakness. We are therefore forced to close another 10% of the long trade (GBPJPY) at market price, 182.46. GBPJPY posted a daily high of 183.19 at the time of this writing.

06/10/15 UPDATE: NZDJPY is trading at  78.09 at the time of this writing.  We are shifting the protective stop to 77.49 and close 10% of the long trade at market price.

06/10/15 UPDATE II: As we notified all our trades of our intention to increase our net short exposure to JPY we have issued a new trade alert in EURJPY based on the 4hr chart with an intraday stop. The BOJ monetary policy statement will be released in the Asian session. Although we are expecting the QE to be increased at the end of the month the BOJ may act today due to the NFP figures. Traders that shorted JPY may cut their exposure, which may lead to a strong yen.

If the BOJ does not hint the QE will be expanded soon the market may trigger our stops for GBPJPY and NZDJPY and we are fully aware of it.

EURJPY Trade Alert Details

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EURJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

EURJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

EURJPY long at market price (134.78)
Take profit: 136.80
Protective stop: 134.38
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 5 (approx.)
Estimate duration: 3 days

06/10/15 UPDATE III: EURJPY is trading at  135.04 at the time of this writing. We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to the entry as this is an intraday trade.

06/10/15 UPDATE IV: EURJPY is trading at  135.39 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURJPY 4hr Chart II 06/10/15

EURJPY 4hr Chart II 06/10/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to 134.95.

06/10/15 UPDATE V: In order to maintain a healthy market exposure we have decided to close NZDJPY long trade ahead of the take profit at market price (78.42).

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

NZDJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

NZDJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

We have finished the trade with approximately +161 pips excluding the positive interest that gained at the rollover.

06/10/15 UPDATE VI: GBPJPY is trading at 182.99 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 06/10/15

We are shifting the protective stop to 182.15 and close 10% of the long trade at market price.

07/10/15 UPDATE: GBPJPY is trading at 183.45 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 07/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 07/10/15

We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price and shift the protective stop to 182.69.

07/10/15 UPDATE II: EURJPY triggered the protective stop after it was shifted above the entry.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

EURJPY 4hr Chart 07/10/15

EURJPY 4hr Chart 07/10/15

We were nevertheless able to realize a decent profit over the long trade.

08/10/15 UPDATE: As we emailed earlier GBPJPY weakness was corrective as the currency cross was able to recover. However, a 4hr close below the resistance (183.90) leaves the possibility for heavy selling open.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 08/10/15

GBPJPY 4hr Chart 08/10/15

As the FOMC statement along with BOE Carney speech is due in approximately 60 minutes we can either shift the stop closer to the market or exit the trade. Shifting the stop may not assist us as slippage could be seen, which means the protective stop will not hold.  It is a tough decision to make as we are still projecting a weak Japanese yen but we are closing the trade at market price.

Last Technical Attempt at the Infamous GBPJPY

As all long trades are closed this page can  now be accessed by all traders. Open trades are restricted to members only. We have been providing trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.
Last Technical Attempt at the Infamous GBPJPY

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Last Technical Attempt at the Infamous GBPJPY

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Last Technical Attempt at the Infamous GBPJPY