The Daily Report: Greece And Technical Analysis – 30 March 2015

Greece and the Creditors

We have intentionally delayed our after-market report as negotiations between Greece and its creditors are taking place at the time of this writing. From Alexis Tsipras recent remarks we can note that he is pushing for a debt write-off as had expected in our prior market research. The reason why the meeting is held is because Greece needs to pay to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) EUR 1.5 billion by the end March as well as EUR 1.7 billion for wages and pensions. Based on our prior experience an agreement is likely to be made, which may boost the risk appetite in the Foreign Exchange market. Assuming Greece will get pass this hurdle Greece will require to pay the IMF EUR 466 million on 9 April and by 20 April it is expected to rune out of funds if the bailout funds are not released.

From a fundamental angle a bullish correction is likely to be seen in EUR pairs and crosses with a weak US Dollar against a basket of currencies. As we discussed in our weekly update we are looking into the stock market for a possible trade alert based on the upcoming test from the Bank of England (BOE). On the 8 April the earning reports begin. We would like to alert you that a trade alert in the Forex market may be issued at the daily close. An instant notification will be sent to our subscribers when it is issued.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Although we do not provide trade alerts in the daily reports with an entry, stop and take profit we would like to examine USDJPT as moderate gains were noted in the currency pair.

USDJPY 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDJPY 4hr Chart, 30/03/15

USDJPY 4hr Chart, 30/03/15

After closing above its intraday resistance, USDJPY extended its gains as we near the end of the US session. Reversed H&S is evident although entering at market price may be difficult. USDJPY may provide an entry upon a re-test of 120.61 resistance where failure to break above may lead to corrective weakness. Likewise, a successful re-test of the support (the breached resistance) may provide a technical entry to join the expected uptrend. Although it is not displayed on the chart, a minor support level is noted at 119.65, which may also provide an entry upon a re-test.

GBPCHF Technical Analysis

GBPCHF has the potential for painting a bearish flag at the time of this writing.

GBPCHF 4hr Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

GBPCHF 4hr Chart, 30/03/15

GBPCHF 4hr Chart, 30/03/15

The bearish flag is highlighted via a couple of lines as you may see. By the book, if the price breaks below 1.4199 it confirms the pattern and the downtrend should resume. However, we suggest paying attention to a 4hr-close blow the lower support line of the flag as it may be sufficient for a technical trade with a rather tight protective stop loss order.

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