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Scotland Referendum Latest Polls
The latest polls from the weekend covering the Scotland referendum for Independence continue to suggest a tight race between the NO and YES camp. As expected, if Scotland vote for Independence UK banks that are exposed to Scotland are likely to suffer. Unfortunately, Barclays is not one of the banks although the stock may be affected despite the minimal exposure. The referendum is scheduled to take place on 18th September. The ICN Poll is currently the only poll that concluded 54% will vote YES for independence. Latest press also highlights that UK nuclear submarines are in Scotland, moving them to the UK may cost billions of pounds. We will continue to cover the latest developments at DDMarkets.com.
The Euro received another beating on Friday as ECB Coene was noted saying the Euro’s heavy selling is helping the economy but a correction was soon to take place as US credit rating agency S&P upgraded Greece rating from B- to B.
The negative opening of US futures (SP500, DJ30 and NSDQ100) cause us to embrace the possibility of a negative opening in SPMIB40 on Monday morning. We have issued a trade alert to execute a long trade at market price, currently in +70 points (approx.) profit. We will accept the gap should it occur as it does not negate our bullish outlook for the Italian index.
Japanese markets are closed in observance of Respect for the Aged Day.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
We have a fair intraday entry on the 4hr chart. EURUSD painted a reversed Head-And-Shoulders (H&S) and closed above the neckline. A re-test of the breached neckline, which is now acting a support level is required to affirm a successful breakout. In this case we cannot enter at market price as a re-test is crucial.
EURUSD 4hr Chart
Please click on the chart to enlarge:
We are setting an entry order for a long position at 1.2948, protective stop layered at 1.2911, targeting 1.3096. The 44MA (in blue) acts as the initial support level while the latter support is provided by the 21MA (in green), currently at 1.2929. The upcoming Fed monetary policy could surprise the market in light of the strong US Dollar and the upcoming QE from Mario Draghi. This could very well act as the fundamental trigger for the expected gains. The RR exceeds 1 : 4 and we are unlikely to remain in the trade for a substantial period of time.
If EURUSD gains +20 pips from current price the entry order should be removed as we have missed the trade.
Platinum (XPT/USD) Technical Analysis
XPT/USD daily is signalling the end of the bearish downtrend. We are aware many of platinum investors are in moderate losses as a result for the steep fall in market price. We are taking the trade at market price bearing mind we may need to absorb a full retracement to the lower shadow of the hammer.
Conservative trades may choose to place an entry order at 1,359 while maintaining the same protective stop and take profit orders.
XPT/USD Daily Chart
Please click on the chart to enlarge:
The Risk Ratio (RR) is relatively tight but we have optimal market conditions for executing the long trade, layering the protective stop loss order at 1,345, targeting 1,388.
We have also layered the trading opportunities for 2014 in the Forex market, Stocks and ETF’s in our latest market research titled, “The ECB ABS Program Trading Opportunities 2014 – 2015.”
Key Economic Figure
This week there are two major events. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish its monetary policy followed by a press conference. On Thursday, the Scotland referendum for Independence, an historic event, will take place, determining the future of UK markets.
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15/09/14 UPDATE: XTP/USD is trading at 1,373.6 at the time of this writing. We are closing 15% of the long trade at market price.
18/09/14 UPDATE: Following the FOMC statement, moderate losses were noted in Platinum. We are still in the trade, current price is 1,350.8 at the time of this writing.
21/09/14 UPDATE: Platinum triggered our protective stop loss order. We were able to minimize the loss by liquidating 15% of the trade with a fair profit.
Trade alerts are also issued in the weekly update.