TRY Special Coverage Following the Attempted Military Coup

Turkish Lira Outlook

An announcement that a military coup is taking place in Turkey prior to the opening of the Forex market had a severe impact on the Turkish Lira (TRY).

EURTRY 60min Chart

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EURTRY 60min Chart 17/07/16

EURTRY 60min Chart 17/07/16

USDTRY 60min Chart

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USDTRY 60min Chart 17/07/16

USDTRY 60min Chart 17/07/16

As the government seem to have regained control many traders are tempted to buy the Turkish Lira as the even that triggered the spike in EURTRY and USDTRY has been extinguished. Due to the high interest rate TRY is favorited by carry traders. As opposed to other central banks, a weak TRY is undesired.

Our problem with TRY is that bullish patterns are present in the chars. Even if the price was to reverse lower it appears it will be temporary as the bigger picture is mildly bullish. We could long EURJPY or USDTRY if it dips lower but we are not keen on paying interest at the rollover.

EURTRY Monthly Chart

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EURTRY Monthly Chart 17/07/16

EURTRY Monthly Chart 17/07/16

Higher highs and higher lows is a distinct sign of an established uptrend. There can be many triggers for another rally in EURTRY, the possibility of further chaos cannot be ruled out. If we have to guess the type of chaos that could weaken the Turkish Lira even further is Greece. According to the latest reports 8 soldiers have landed in Greece via a helicopter, seeking asylum following the failed attempt to overthrow the regime. As Greece is a member of the EU it must abide by its laws. As the Turkish parliament will consider a death penalty for treason we are uncertain if Greece will comply with Turkey’s demands. This may increase the tension between the countries, which may trigger further TRY selling in the Forex market.

If Greece will reveal on what date it will make its decision we might consider long trade in USDTRY. We cannot ignore the negative interest that will be incurred by holding a long trade in USDTRY or EURTRY.

USDTRY Weekly Chart

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USDTRY Weekly Chart 17/07/16

USDTRY Weekly Chart 17/07/16

Although the price appear to have reached a resistance level the chart has painted a bullish flag. A break above the high or even the current resistance may pave the way for further gains.

Due to the crude oil pipe that runs through Turkey crude oil is likely to be affected, which will spill over to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Any tension in Turkey often leads to moderate gains in WTI and Brent crude oil. We do not have any firm entries in CAD pairs and crosses at the time of this writing, we will continue monitoring the events in Turkey and act in accordance.

13/11/16 UPDATE: Turkey’s decision to ‘cleanse’ the country following the attempted coup triggered further TRY weakness in the Forex market. As a result our TRY projections may be accessed by all traders rather than just our subscribers.

TRY Special Coverage Following the Attempted Military Coup

As the TRY projections have achieved their target this page can now be accessed by all traders. Open trades and relevant intraday strategies are restricted to members only. We have been providing trade alerts in the Forex market since May 2014.
TRY Special Coverage Following the Attempted Military Coup

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TRY Special Coverage Following the Attempted Military Coup

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TRY Special Coverage Following the Attempted Military Coup

Last Updated on November 13, 2016