USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

EURUSD Analysis

Before presenting our technical strategy for USDCHF potential signal we would like to further discuss EURUSD as we have done in our prior research. To recap, following EURUSD rally that took place last week we immediately identified the risks of further gains.

Due to our experience in global markets we recalled similar patterns that were seen in EURCHF many years ago (prior to the 1.2000 floor). The technical structure of Euro Swiss and Euro Dollar were almost identical. The resemblance of the two currency pairs was reflected in moderate gains that invalidated numerous short intraday entries.

We could join the rally as it required a hefty stop, we simply refrained from initiating short trades in the Euro while ensuring our members are fully aware of our analysis. Our actions prevented steep losses, which we are very proud of. As a rule we do not engage in battling with the market once the trend begins.

USDCHF Daily Chart

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

USDCHF Daily Chart 31/07/17

USDCHF Strategy

We have presented USDCHF daily chart in our  prior analysis before the recent gains materialized. We noted the breakout below the support level but we suspected it may be a false breakout. When we noted the break above the resistance we immediately suspected it may evolve into a false breakout.

However, the current USDCHF weakness is considered a re-test of the breached resistance, which is one of the distinct signs that suggest further gains. We cannot predetermine whether the gains in USDCHF may be USD or CHF related.

We are not keen on initiating long USD positions in light of the recent USD weakness, however, we have no valid reason to dismiss the entry.

USDCHF Trade Alert

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

USDCHF Daily Chart II 31/07/17

USDCHF long at market price (0.9668)
Take profit: 09855
Protective stop: 0.9595
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 2.8 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 10 days (approx.)

Price range: Relevant as long as price is below 0.9705

Note: The potential drawdown is a re-test of 0.9615.

01/08/17 UPDATE: USDCHF posted a second re-test of the breached resistance at the time of this writing. Although this is still inline with our projections for the currency pair we are closing 20% of the long trade at market price (0.9657) as a precaution.

02/08/17 UPDATE: USDCHF is trading at 0.9709 at the time of this writing, we are closing 20% of the long trade at market price. We will tighten the protective stop after the daily close (stop was later shifted to 0.9628).

03/08/17 UPDATE: We are closing 20% of the long trade at market price (09690).

03/08/17 UPDATE II: The progress of USDCHF has been too sluggish, we were expecting to have further distance from the market prior to the daily close. Although the entry has not been invalidated we are closing the long trade at market price (0.9681)

EURAUD Trade Alert

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

EURAUD Daily Chart 03/08/17

EURAUD short at market price (1.4934)
Take profit: 1.4530
Protective stop: 1.5115
Risk Ratio (RR): 1 : 2.2 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 10 days (approx.)

Price range: Relevant as long as price is above 1.4900

Note: The potential drawdown is a re-test of 1.5050.

04/08/17 UPDATE: EURAUD is trading at 1.4839 at the time of this writing.

Please click on the chart to enlarge:

USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

EURAUD Daily Chart 04/08/17

We are closing 30% of the short trade at market price, we will adjust the protective stop on Sunday.

07/08/17 UPDATE: We are shifting EURAUD protective stop to 1.4945.

EURAUD short position ended with a fair profit.


AS ALL THE SIGNALS IN THIS PAGE ARE CLOSED THE STRATEGIES ARE NOW ACCESSIBLE TO ALL TRADERS



USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend

USDCHF Technical Signal: Diving into the Trend